80% of patients with transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder are initially diagnosed with superficial disease (Ta, Tl). Following transurethral resection, 70-80% of these patients develop recurrent disease within 6-12 months. At this time 10-20% will already have developed muscle-invasive tumors or metastatic disease. In contrast, the other 50-60% of patients will suffer recurrences of superficial bladder cancer without the development of muscle-invasive tumors. This observation indicates the existence of bladder cancer with variable biological characteristics. Multiple studies have tried to determine prognostic parameters for superficially growing and muscle-invasive bladder tumors, in order to use therapeutic strategies adjusted for the prognosis of the individual patient. However, the majority of these factors, eg. S phase fraction, mitotic index, expression of blood group antigens or unmasking of the Thomsen-Friedenreich antigen, did not provide prognostic information superior to classical parameters such as tumor (T) stage and histological grade (G). The use of cytogenetic and moleculargenetic techniques seems to achieve a better prognostic value and may permit a satisfactory prediction of the prognosis of the individual patient. The p53 tumor suppressor gene is located on chromosome #17p at 13.1. For a variety of human malignancies a correlation between inactivation of the p53 gene and the clinical course of the disease has been demonstrated. Recent studies have demonstrated that alterations of p53 in superficial bladder cancer will lead to a 60-85% likelihood for the development of muscle-invasive tumors, while the likelihood for p53-negative tumors will be less than 10%. A similarly important predictive value of p53 alterations also seems to exist for locally advanced bladder cancer with respect to overall survival of the patients. The results may serve as a molecular basis for therapeutic decision, such as early radical cystectomy or adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk patients. Prospective studies will need to incorporate prognostic factors at the molecular level.

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