Introduction: The study uniquely focuses on the global incidence, mortality, and temporal trends of brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer from 1992 to 2021. It explores the association between the disease burden and factors such as age, period, and birth cohorts, and provides forecasts for future incidence and mortality. Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from 1992 to 2021, we calculated incidence, and deaths and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) and assessed temporal trends using the average annual percent change derived from joinpoint regression analysis. To explore the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort in greater depth, we applied an age-period-cohort model. Additionally, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to forecast the global epidemiological trends from 2022 to 2031. Results: The global incidence of brain and CNS cancer has increased from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, and the number of mortalities has risen by 80.62%. The incidence ASR was highest in high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and showed an increasing trend. Conversely, the mortality ASR displayed downward trends in high-middle and high SDI regions. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent increase in incidence risk and a decline in mortality. From 2022 to 2031, the global mortality ASR was predicted to decrease whereas the incidence ASR increases slowly. Conclusion: The global trends in brain and CNS cancer incidence and mortality generally showed an increasing trend with considerable heterogeneity. Furtherly, high SDI regions were displayed where healthcare systems could conduct earlier and better medical interventions with better outcome for brain and CNS cancer.

Journal Section:
Research Article
Keywords:
Brain and central nervous system cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Age-period-cohort model, Prediction
1.
Fan
Y
,
Zhang
X
,
Gao
C
,
Jiang
S
,
Wu
H
,
Liu
Z
, et al.
Burden and trends of brain and central nervous system cancer from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and country levels
.
Arch Public Health
.
2022
;
80
(
1
):
209
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
2.
Sung
H
,
Ferlay
J
,
Siegel
RL
,
Laversanne
M
,
Soerjomataram
I
,
Jemal
A
, et al.
Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries
.
CA Cancer J Clin
.
2021
;
71
(
3
):
209
–
49
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
3.
Bray
F
,
Laversanne
M
,
Sung
H
,
Ferlay
J
,
Siegel
RL
,
Soerjomataram
I
, et al.
Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries
.
CA Cancer J Clin
.
2024
;
74
(
3
):
229
–
63
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
4.
Maimaiti
A
,
Tuersun
M
,
Wang
X
,
Mijiti
M
,
Wu
H
,
Cong
C
, et al.
Global, regional, and national burden of brain and central nervous system cancers for males from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level in the next 25 years
.
Neuroepidemiology
.
2024
:
1
–
20
.
Google Scholar
 
5.
Mahdavi
M
,
Moghaddam
SS
,
Abbasi-Kangevari
M
,
Mohammadi
E
,
Shobeiri
P
,
Sharifi
G
, et al.
National and subnational burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Iran, 1990–2019: results from the global burden of disease study 2019
.
Cancer Med
.
2023
;
12
(
7
):
8614
–
28
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
6.
Teng
H
,
Yan
O
,
Xiao
C
,
Wang
X
,
Liu
Z
,
Xu
J
.
Trends, age shifts, and potential delayed peaks post-pandemic of early-onset brain and central nervous system cancers in individuals aged 20–49: a cross-sectional study
.
Int J Surg
.
2025
;
111
(
2
):
1760
–
72
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
7.
GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators
.
Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
.
Lancet
.
2024
;
403
(
10440
):
2133
–
61
.
PubMed
 
8.
Ferlin
M
,
Noraz
N
,
Hertogh
C
,
Brochier
J
,
Taylor
N
,
Klein
B
.
Insulin-like growth factor induces the survival and proliferation of myeloma cells through an interleukin-6-independent transduction pathway
.
Br J Haematol
.
2000
;
111
(
2
):
626
–
34
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
9.
Lv
B
,
Lan
J-X
,
Si
Y-F
,
Ren
Y-F
,
Li
M-Y
,
Guo
F-F
, et al.
Epidemiological trends of subarachnoid hemorrhage at global, regional, and national level: a trend analysis study from 1990 to 2021
.
Mil Med Res
.
2024
;
11
(
1
):
46
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
10.
Papadopoulos
CE
,
Yeung
H
.
Uncertainty estimation and Monte Carlo simulation method
.
Flow Meas Instrumentation
.
2001
;
12
(
4
):
291
–
8
.
Google Scholar
 
11.
Rezaei
F
,
Mazidimoradi
A
,
Rayatinejad
A
,
Allahqoli
L
,
Salehiniya
H
.
Temporal trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer between 2010 and 2019, in Asian countries by geographical region and sociodemographic index, comparison with global data
.
Thorac Cancer
.
2023
;
14
(
18
):
1668
–
706
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
12.
Kim
HJ
,
Fay
MP
,
Feuer
EJ
,
Midthune
DN
.
Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates
.
Stat Med
.
2000
;
19
(
3
):
335
–
51
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
13.
Gao
S
,
Yang
W-S
,
Bray
F
,
Va
P
,
Zhang
W
,
Gao
J
, et al.
Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: incidence trends in 1976–2005
.
Eur J Epidemiol
.
2012
;
27
(
1
):
39
–
46
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
14.
Rosenberg
PS
,
Check
DP
,
Anderson
WF
.
A web tool for age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates
.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev
.
2014
;
23
(
11
):
2296
–
302
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
15.
Rong
J
,
Cheng
P
,
Li
D
,
Wang
X
,
Zhao
D
.
Global, regional, and national temporal trends in prevalence for depressive disorders in older adults, 1990–2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019
.
Ageing Res Rev
.
2024
;
100
:
102443
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
16.
Rosenberg
PS
,
Anderson
WF
.
Age-period-cohort models in cancer surveillance research: ready for prime time
.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev
.
2011
;
20
(
7
):
1263
–
8
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
17.
Zou
Y
,
Yue
M
,
Ye
X
,
Wang
Y
,
Ma
X
,
Zhang
A
, et al.
Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study
.
J Glob Health
.
2024
;
14
:
04077
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
18.
Du
Z
,
Chen
W
,
Xia
Q
,
Shi
O
,
Chen
Q
.
Trends and projections of kidney cancer incidence at the global and national levels, 1990–2030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study
.
Biomark Res
.
2020
;
8
:
16
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
19.
Murray
CJ
,
Lopez
AD
.
Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990–2020: Global Burden of Disease Study
.
Lancet
.
1997
;
349
(
9064
):
1498
–
504
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
20.
GBD 2016 Brain and Other CNS Cancer Collaborators
.
Global, regional, and national burden of brain and other CNS cancer, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
.
Lancet Neurol
.
2019
;
18
(
4
):
376
–
93
.
PubMed
 
21.
Allemani
C
,
Matsuda
T
,
Di Carlo
V
,
Harewood
R
,
Matz
M
,
Nikšić
M
, et al.
Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries
.
Lancet
.
2018
;
391
(
10125
):
1023
–
75
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
22.
GBD 2015 Neurological Disorders Collaborator Group
.
Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
.
Lancet Neurol
.
2017
;
16
(
11
):
877
–
97
.
PubMed
 
23.
Plascak
JJ
,
Fisher
JL
.
Area-based socioeconomic position and adult glioma: a hierarchical analysis of surveillance epidemiology and end results data
.
PLoS One
.
2013
;
8
(
4
):
e60910
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
24.
Helligsoe
ASL
,
Kenborg
L
,
Henriksen
LT
,
Udupi
A
,
Hasle
H
,
Winther
JF
.
Incidence and survival of childhood central nervous system tumors in Denmark, 1997–2019
.
Cancer Med
.
2022
;
11
(
1
):
245
–
56
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
25.
Clarsen
B
,
Nylenna
M
,
Klitkou
ST
,
Vollset
SE
,
Baravelli
CM
,
Bølling
AK
, et al.
Changes in life expectancy and disease burden in Norway, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
.
Lancet Public Health
.
2022
;
7
:
e593
–
605
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
26.
Zheng
Z
,
Zhu
Z
,
Zhou
C
,
Cao
L
,
Zhao
G
.
Burden of Parkinson disease in China, 1990–2019: findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study
.
Neuroepidemiology
.
2023
;
57
(
1
):
51
–
64
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
27.
Ostrom
QT
,
Francis
SS
,
Barnholtz-Sloan
JS
.
Epidemiology of brain and other CNS tumors
.
Curr Neurol Neurosci Rep
.
2021
;
21
(
12
):
68
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
28.
Ostrom
QT
,
Patil
N
,
Cioffi
G
,
Waite
K
,
Kruchko
C
,
Barnholtz-Sloan
JS
.
CBTRUS statistical report: primary brain and other central nervous system tumors diagnosed in the United States in 2013–2017
.
Neuro Oncol
.
2020
;
22
(
12 Suppl 2
):
iv1
–
96
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
29.
Ostrom
QT
,
Adel Fahmideh
M
,
Cote
DJ
,
Muskens
IS
,
Schraw
JM
,
Scheurer
ME
, et al.
Risk factors for childhood and adult primary brain tumors
.
Neuro Oncol
.
2019
;
21
(
11
):
1357
–
75
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
30.
Wang
Y
,
Liang
J
,
Fang
Y
,
Yao
D
,
Zhang
L
,
Zhou
Y
, et al.
Burden of common neurologic diseases in Asian countries, 1990–2019: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
.
Neurology
.
2023
;
100
(
21
):
e2141
–
54
.
Google Scholar
PubMed
 
© 2025 S. Karger AG, Basel
Copyright / Drug Dosage / Disclaimer
Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug.
Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.
2025
You do not currently have access to this content.