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First page of Identifying New Risk Factors for Comorbidities in the Elderly

Introduction: A cross-sectional design to evaluate high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) as novel biomarkers for assessing the risk of geriatric comorbidities. Based on data from 316 patients with geriatric comorbidities, participants were selected through hospital records according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary outcome measures include the impact of HDL-C and FBG levels on the severity of comorbidities and the calibration and decision utility of the nomogram prediction model. The study also explores the clinical value of the nomogram model in managing the risk of geriatric comorbidities amidst the aging population. Methods: Multiple statistical methods, including logistic regression, Lasso regression, and calibration analysis, were used to assess the associations of the above factors and evaluate the performance of the nomogram prediction model. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in internal and external validation, with nearly perfect calibration performance observed in the external validation. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the model's high clinical utility and benefit. Results: HDL-C was significantly negatively associated with the risk of geriatric comorbidities (odds ratio [OR] = 0.387, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.286-0.547, P < 0.05), while FBG was positively associated with comorbidity risk (OR = 1.050, 95% CI: 1.129-2.136, P < 0.05). The nomogram model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in internal and external validation, with nearly perfect calibration performance observed in the external validation. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the model's high clinical utility and benefit. Conclusion: This study underscores the importance of HDL-C and FBG as critical biomarkers for assessing comorbidity risk in the elderly and reveals the potential application of the Nomogram prediction model in the risk prediction and management of elderly comorbidities. These findings support using these indicators in predicting and intervening comorbidities in the elderly, providing substantial evidence for further research and clinical practice.

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S. Karger AG, Basel
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2025
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