Background: The estimated life expectancy of older persons is an important component of medical decision-making. To date, no data are available on the accuracy of health care professionals in estimating the remaining life expectancy of older subjects. Methods: A survey estimating the mean remaining life expectancy of Germans of both sexes at the ages of 0, 70, 80 and 90 years was performed from September to November 2010. Results: Two hundred and six health care professionals underestimated the mean remaining life expectancy of older persons by 10%, on average, and with great variance (SD = 34%). Medical doctors, especially those not specialized in geriatrics, estimated worst. Conclusions: Underestimation of the remaining life expectancy of older people is prevalent in health care professionals and may lead to patients being managed inappropriately. This underscores the need for further studies and better training on this issue in health care education.

Keywords:
Decision-making, Life expectancy, Aged, Aged 80 and over, Geriatrics, Elderly
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© 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel
2011
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