Background: Human life expectancy is constantly increasing: the challenge for modern geriatric medicine is to identify the means to reach successfully extreme longevity. Objective: To determine which are the survival determinants in centenarians using a neural network. Methods: Sample of 110 centenarians living in Rome, mean age 101.6 years (SD = 1.8) with a sex ratio males:females of 1:3. We administered an extensive health interview (lasting 1–2 h) to each subject. The questionnaire, carried out according to the Geriatric Multidimensional Assessment, is made up of 100 items including a comprehensive health and psychosocial assessment aimed at various topics of general health and well-being and some scales used in geriatric practice. We applied several three-layered feed-forward neural networks by mixing in different ways the most important of the 100 items. Results: The most predicting powered net is the one constructed with 23 variables regarding comorbidity, cardiovascular risk factors, cognitive status, mood, functional status and social interactions, which therefore are strictly related to survival in centenarians. Conclusion: Survival in longevity is a complex biological phenomenon, which is an ideal field for using the neural network as a statistic method. The net shows us that the maintenance of social relationships even in presence of disability is of major importance for survival in the oldest old.

Keywords:
Longevity, Centenarians, Predicting survival, Neural network
This content is only available via PDF.
© 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel
2005
Copyright / Drug Dosage / Disclaimer
Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug.
Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.
You do not currently have access to this content.