The objective of this paper is to describe primary tooth surface level caries progression, over 2 years, based on the severity of the caries lesions. Data were collected from 790 low-income African-American preschool children in Detroit, Mich., USA. The caregivers of the children (aged 0-5 years) completed interviews and the dyad of child-caregiver completed dental examinations in 2002-2004 (baseline) and in 2004-2005 (follow-up). Caries were measured using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). The caries status of tooth surfaces was classified into initial (ICDAS 1-2), moderate (ICDAS 3-4) and extensive (ICDAS 5-6) stages. Counts of tooth surfaces with progression, by baseline caries severity level, were used to compute rate ratios (RRs) relative to sound stages. RRs were also computed for type of tooth surfaces and frequency of intake of soda consumption at baseline. After adjusting for confounders, caries progression was more likely to occur in tooth surfaces with any baseline caries relative to sound surfaces. For surfaces with initial caries, the rate of progression to moderate caries was 9.6 times higher than that of sound surfaces. Surfaces with initial and moderate caries progressed to extensive caries 6.1 and 20.6 times, respectively, relative to sound surfaces. Baseline soda consumption was not associated with the RR of caries progression. In conclusion, the staging of caries identifies different progression risks and significant emphasis should be placed on secondary prevention of initial lesions as well as on primary prevention.

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