A Scoring Model with Simple Clinical Parameters to Predict Successful Discontinuation of Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Background: Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is the standard treatment for severe acute kidney injury in critically ill patients. However, a practical consensus for discontinuing CRRT is lacking. We aimed to develop a prediction model with simple clinical parameters for successful discontinuation of CRRT. Methods: Adult patients who received CRRT at Samsung Medical Center from 2007 to 2017 were included. Patients with preexisting ESRD and patients who progressed to ESRD within 1 year or died within 7 days after CRRT were excluded. Successful discontinuation of CRRT was defined as no requirement for renal replacement therapy for 7 days after discontinuing CRRT. Patients were assigned to either a success group or failure group according to whether discontinuation of CRRT was successful or not. Results: A total of 1,158 patients were included in the final analyses. The success group showed greater urine output on the day before CRRT discontinuation (D-1) and the discontinuation day (D0). Multivariable analysis identified that urine output ≥300 mL on D-1, and mean arterial pressure 50∼78 mm Hg, serum potassium <4.1 mmol/L, and BUN <35 mg/dL (12.5 mmol/L) on D0 were predictive factors for successful discontinuation of CRRT. A scoring system using the 4 variables above (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.731) was developed. Conclusions: Scoring system composed of urine output ≥300 mL/day on D-1, and adequate blood pressure, serum potassium <4.1 mmol/L, and BUN <35 mg/dL (12.5 mmol/L) on D0 was developed to predict successful discontinuation of CRRT.